Overfitting

Overfitting is when a model memorises its training data instead of learning the underlying pattern: near-perfect on examples it has seen, unreliable on anything new.

Fundamentalsover-trainingmemorisation
§ 01DefinitionOverfitting

No jargon, no math

In plain words, what is it?

Training reduces error on the training set, and there is a point where that stops being progress. Keep adjusting and the model starts fitting the noise in the data: the exact typos, the one-off spikes, the quirks of last quarter. The tell is in two curves: training error keeps falling while error on unseen data rises. The parameters have effectively memorised the flashcards. The fixes follow from the diagnosis: stop earlier (early stopping), gather more or better data, use a smaller model, or regularise. The honest verdict always comes from the test set the model never touched, never from the training score.

§ 02How it worksWhen great training scores hide a model that memorised
  1. 01

    Train. The model adjusts its parameters on the training examples.

  2. 02

    Test on unseen data. The held-out test set shows if the pattern generalises.

  3. 03

    Spot the tell. Great on training, poor on new data means memorisation.

  4. 04

    Fix. More data, early stopping or a smaller model break the memorisation.

§ 04

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